A quick update on the week. I try to be a long term buy hold investor. If a stock is older than 3 quarters, my goal is to hold it for another 5-10 years. I'm only 7-8 years into investing so we will see if this plays out that way but only time (and Commonstock) will tell. If my thesis on the stock changes, that will change the timeline, but ideally, I'll be buying a stock with a 5-30 year thesis, so if it starts to play out it will hopefully play out over time.

$PTON @ 1.52% of port

$TTD @ 1.21% of port

I added two new stocks to my portfolio this week. I've had these two stocks on my watch list semi-seriously from October of last year.

I chose to enter $PTON post earnings after a semi-sell down. I ultimately bought the weekly high by buying on the open on Monday at $155, I increased the position size by 30% on Thursday at $136.

Why do I buy the open? I'm currently in Australia so I set up my trades the night before, and they execute while I sleep.

I should probably trade less on Mondays based on the feeling that they have the biggest swings depending on how Friday closes. I might look this up to see if this is true. Anyway, sometimes buying the open works in your favor, sometimes it doesn't. In the grand scheme of things I'm buying stocks to hold for 5+ years so these minor percentage changes are more

As a thesis driven investor, I'm incredibly excited about a digital, connected, data driven health and fitness future. I believe that Peleton's wedge into the home with their initial bike series is an excellent go to market strategy for a much larger and broader health technology platform.

What this company might look like, I can only guess. But I believe it will start in the connected home.

In order to continue with moderate TAM expansion required for Peleton to continue to grow into a health superpower, it will require a solid M&A strategy. Peleton has begun to lean into this with its recent acquisition of Precor for $420m in December. While this may ultimately be an (international) distribution and domestic manufacturing play in the short term, a successful fold-in should give shareholders confidence of future acquisitions, more digitally based.

How will they fund their ongoing operations and M&A deals?

Peleton just announced the closing of $1b 0% convertible note due in 2026, giving them a robust war chest in addition to their Q2 endings of $2.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments in marketable securities and a $250

million revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn to-date.

So essentially a $3.35b war chest, all for a company with FY21 estimates of:

I see the biggest risk to PTON share price as short term, market fluctuations which don't reflect the underlying fundamentals of the business itself. I'm not overly concerned with multiples and valuations as a LT investor, especially when revenue growth is in the 100%+ range and the balance sheet and FCF of 20%+ is this strong.

Finally, I believe that the stock trading at 17% below its ATH, is enough of a contrarian price to warrant a small entry here considering all that I've mentioned above.

In regards to $TTD, as a thesis driven investor, I'm incredibly excited about a digital, connected, data driven advertising future I believe that The Trade Desk is well positioned to capture given its counter-positioning against the first wave of media and advertising platforms which heavily rely on cookie collecting and tracking systems not inline with the movement towards open internet standards.

"We’re building on the work of leading industry partners and collaborating across the ecosystem to develop an open source ID framework. Built from hashed and encrypted email addresses, this ID will remain open and ubiquitous while introducing significant upgrades to consumer privacy and transparency."

Given the power of counter-positioning; the lead they are beginning to establish itself as the leader in programmatic ad buying could also quickly become a flywheel of profits given their network effects.

While traditional multiples and valuations may seem high on the stock, trading at 13x 2025 revenue estimates, I'm happy to take a small position here to see how this plays out over the next couple of quarters. 30% growth estimates I think are relatively inline with how I see some technology companies moving forward in this post-COVID environment, anything better could have reasonably positive share price movements....but again, I'm buying this essentially as a call option on $TTD being the #1 "non-platform" media marketplace in the next 3-10 years...if it isn't already.

I increased my position in $CRWD by about 9%.

This has been my 7th buy of the stock since entering it in early December.

Buy History:

12/7/20 - Entry: $168

12/15 - $175, +33% position

12/28 - $225, +14% position

12/30 - $207, +11% position

1/6/21 - $200, +9% position

1/27 - $200, +17% position

2/19 - $241, +9% position

To come to an average cost of $186, and a current unrealized gain of about 28% (including the most recent purchase).

It is currently my 5th largest position, 8.14% of port.

The stock isn't set to report earnings until March 16th, at the tail end of this reporting period.

I've seen enough positive news amongst $DDOG and $NET to feel comfortable continuing to leg into this stock prior to earnings, even if both those cybersecurity companies fell 5% or so after their release.

This is largely part of their continued M&A strategy which just saw them acquire a data log provider Humio for $400m. Like with $PTON, I see M&A as a necessary part of TAM expansion and a positive signal that things are going well for the company.

No sells/trims this month.

I have had both $FSLY and $V on my watchlist to potentially trim. Ultimately I think I will continue to hold $V for the next 3-6months unless I face a liquidity issue where I see an opportunity worth of reallocating capital rather than adding new capital to my portfolio.

This is equally the case of $FSLY , which even prior to their earnings release and subsequent drop, I've been cautious of managements ability to execute in a high growth environment. For a smaller company, marked by the market as a highgrowth play like $FSLY, a 30% growth rate simply won't be rewarded by the market (I feel with $TTD on a larger base 30% is more reasonable).

Plan:

96% invested now --> 100% by September

Its amazing how even at being so close to 100% fully invested, I don't feel "fully invested". Last year in March I was caught being fully invested and slightly higher levered than I wanted to be. This was not bad, but certainly not an optimal position to be in for pure "returns".

I think the big thing for me this week, is what my deployment rate for the next 5-7 months is. It may be front loaded, it may be even. This is what I will be ruminating on.

The rough plan for that deployment is:

Top up $CRWD to >10% of Portfolio (potentially an increase of 50%)

Evaluate entries (Might be smallest positions, 0.5-0.75% of port)):

At this point my goals beyond September include some more risk off moves. This means potentially more $MSFT and a couple of more pushes into ETFs. I still think $CRWD presents a great balance between risk and growth for me, so maybe more is there. Will see.

I'm just a boat in the sea of the market. My "arbitrary" goals based on the construction of my portfolio is to be outperforming $SPY/$QQQ and ideally, pushing towards a great Tech ETF like $ARKW ,

I would be very happy to return around 30-50% this year. This is potentially a bad reason or way to think about the market, and I might have to reframe my thinking about why I'm investing.

Anyway, 6 weeks is probably too small of a window to look at, I think 3-12months are probably the real checks, but here is the 6 week/YTD anyway.

YTD Portfolio: 5.46%

vs

$SPY: 4.32%

$ARKW: 26.43%

My portfolio had a great close on 2020 but always interesting to check in like this to gauge risk and alpha

Since 8/1/20 when I "joined" Fintwit: 47%

$SPY: 19%

$ARKW: 84%

Thanks for reading if you got this far, would love it if you smashed the like button and let me know what you thought of this memo,

Best,

Stuart